China Export Growth Slows to 2.5% in March Amid Iran War Uncertainty and Energy Shock

China’s external trade momentum weakened significantly as China export growth slows to 2.5% in March amid Iran war uncertainty, reflecting rising global instability and energy market disruptions. According to customs data, exports from China expanded by just 2.5% year-on-year in March, a sharp slowdown compared to the 21.8% surge recorded in January–February.

China export growth slows to 2.5% in March amid Iran war uncertainty

The slowdown has been largely attributed to the ongoing Middle East conflict, where tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted global shipping routes and increased energy prices. Analysts say this has weakened global demand and raised costs across supply chains.

Despite strong performance in early 2026 driven by semiconductor and technology exports, the latest figures highlight vulnerabilities in China’s export-driven economy. Imports, however, surged by 27.8%, indicating strong domestic demand but also adding pressure to the trade balance.

Economists warn that rising freight costs, insurance premiums, and oil price volatility are now feeding into manufacturing costs, reducing competitiveness in global markets. The slowdown is also below market expectations, which had forecast significantly higher export growth.

Global trade impact and outlook

The export slowdown signals broader risks for global trade as geopolitical tensions continue. With energy supply uncertainty and disrupted maritime routes, supply chains remain under pressure, especially for Asian manufacturing hubs.

In conclusion, China export growth slows to 2.5% in March amid Iran war uncertainty highlights how geopolitical conflict is reshaping global trade flows and increasing economic instability across major exporting nations.