Weak Monsoon Forecast 2026: Pulses, Soybean and Cotton at High Risk in India

India’s weak monsoon forecast 2026 is raising serious concerns for the agriculture sector, especially for rain-dependent crops like pulses, soybean, and cotton. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has projected rainfall at just 92% of the long period average (LPA), making it one of the weakest forecasts in nearly 26 years. Experts attribute this to the El Niño impact on Indian monsoon, which typically reduces rainfall.

Impact of Weak Monsoon Forecast 2026 on Kharif Crops

The weak monsoon forecast 2026 is expected to significantly impact rain-fed crops in India such as pulses, including chana, tur, and urad, which are largely grown in states like Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan with limited irrigation. Similarly, soybean production in India may suffer due to already reduced acreage and dependence on rainfall in key regions like Vidarbha and central India.

Cotton is another vulnerable crop, with cotton cultivation in India already declining from peak levels. Climate change has further increased risks, making cotton highly sensitive to rainfall variability. In contrast, rice production in irrigated states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh may remain relatively stable due to better irrigation coverage.

A weak monsoon typically leads to food inflation in India, especially in vegetables, pulses, and cereals. Rising prices, combined with global challenges like the West Asia crisis, could push inflation beyond 4.5% and weaken rural demand.

In conclusion, the weak monsoon forecast 2026 poses risks not just to crop output but also to farmer income and overall economic stability, making early policy action crucial